Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Have the Reaches of Online Surveillance Become Breaches of our Privacy?

Apple’s new iOS 7 update boasts a vibrant visual overhaul, enables multitasking, and adds brand new camera software among some other improvements. But the most controversial and radical change that iOS 7 has to offer is the unlimited access to user’s personal data that Apple provides to law enforcement. Those who find this breach of privacy unnerving will be even more unsettled that Apple’s entire iPhone 5S fingerprint data will be shared with the NSA. In fact, for over a year the NSA and FBI have been compiling a special database of fingerprints to be used specifically with Apple’s new 5S technology. While the new technology certainly increases our convenience while lending a hand to law enforcement, it also breaches the bounds of privacy. Apple’s decisions raises the question, what should the ethical and legal reaches of online surveillance be determined by? On the other hand, many companies have taken measures to protect the privacy and anonymity of their customers. Forbes, for example, is launching a new tool for sending anonymous tips and documents. Sensitive information which is usually communicated through email can now be sent into Forbes through a tool called SafeSource, which uses the Tor anonymity network to upload documents to their reporters, while protecting the identity of the sender. As Forbes notes regarding its own tool, these precautions may seem paranoid. Nevertheless, people are paranoid and companies need to accommodate these customers, who will only increase in number as our lives become less private.

This clash between opponents of online surveillance and its advocates is embodied, to a certain extent, in the NSA’s attempts to breach anonymity networks such as Tor. Nevertheless, Tor’s ability to effectively preserve the anonymity of its users has been tested and proven against high standards. The National Security Agency’s inability to break Tor’s anonymity protection regarding the documents leaked by Edward Snowden presents a triumph for the opponents of online surveillance, and preserves some hope for a future in which we can retain semblance of privacy in our everyday lives.
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Nyall Islam

Twitter IPO: No Profit? No Problem… Yet.

The social networking and microblogging service Twitter has yet to make a dime. Nevertheless, its shares skyrocketed in its NYSE debut, rising 73% on opening day. Its initial public offering was underpriced at $26 a share to prevent a repeat of Facebook’s troubled debut in 2012, but this certainly did not last. The company’s shares traded at roughly 22 times its expected sales in 2014, nearly double that of Facebook Inc. and LinkedIn Inc. This investor interest reflects a change in former valuation analyses of social media corporations. Twitter is far from turning a profit and has no physical assets, yet its initial public offering put the stock market in a frenzy as investors eagerly sought to purchase their own stake in the money-losing company. Why would someone buy shares in a company that posted a $65 million lost in its most recent quarter? The answer: Innovation.

Investors value innovation now more than ever, and twitter has changed the way the world communicates. "Twitter has, when coupled with the increasing distribution of smart phones and reach of the Internet, an impact on global connectivity and transparency," said former U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. “It has definitely contributed to the acceleration of the news process and helped to expand the availability of information sources to a wide range of people."

Corporations that have thrived from innovation, like Google and Apple, have pushed investors to apply an “innovation premium” to novel companies. When Google went public in 2004, its valuation was one-fourth of the original value of Facebook. If we examine the most innovative companies trading today, we see a persistent rise in stock prices. For instance, despite selling fewer than 50,00 vehicles, Tesla’s shares continue to rise and maintain a bullish sentiment. In addition, Facebook’s shares have most certainly bounced back from its IPO disaster, as the company is currently valued at a staggering $120 billion dollars. It is undeniable that in today’s market, innovation brings about investor enthusiasm and therefore higher sales.

Twitter has proven to be an indispensible social media service that has yet to realize the lucrative potentials of global advertising. Its expanding volume reflects a vast amount of data flow that can be packaged and sold to firms interested in examining trends and public opinions. So on paper, Twitter looks good. However, most investors think that Twitter, Facebook, Google, LinkedIn, etc. are all interchangeable. They aren’t.

In a conversation I had with Mr. Michael Barrett, former Chief Executive of Yahoo!, Mr. Barrett expressed his doubts regarding Twitter’s possible advertising operations. “Platforms with real data on their members like Facebook, LinkedIn, and Google have a huge advantage over Twitter when it comes to monetizing their users” said Mr. Barrett. “If you can target ads to users based upon real personal data that people surrender during the registration process and when they use the service you can charge more for ads and sell more ads.” Twitter has no such power.

Though the microblogging service hundreds of millions of members and plenty of capital to expand, investors must be wary when grouping Twitter with the likes Facebook and Google. It has the means to grow and profit considerably given its comprehensive membership that includes celebrities and politicians, but when it comes to emulating the success of Facebook, Mr. Barrett said teasingly, “I think my cat has a Twitter account and other than an occasional Friskie ad my cat doesn't generate a lot of value for Twitter.”

Twitter can be a huge hit, but as Mr. Barrett advocated, investors must realize not all websites are the same.
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Chris Kenny

Friday, November 15, 2013

Book Review: Too Big to Fail

Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System and Themselves
By Andrew Ross Sorkin

The Most important risk is systematic: if this dynamic continues unabated, the result would be a greater probability of widespread insolvencies, severe and protracted damage to the financial system and, ultimately, to the economy as a whole” -- Timothy Geithner

The quotation above by Timothy Geithner, then head of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve in 2008, strikes at the heart of the finical crisis of 2008 and the severe consequences it posed for our nation’s economy. The economic recession that struck the global financial system was a historic and unparalleled crisis that challenged the bedrock of modern finance. It was a global recession that hit not only the United States but also every country that was exposed to the global banking system, a now essential and interconnected element of every developed economic nation. Dubbed by Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, as the worst economy since the great depression, the economic downturn in 2008 had far reaching and lasting effects that resulted in stunning losses not only on Wall Street, but Main Street as well. As an academic, and student of the Great Depression of the 1930’s, Bernanke was well aware of the stunning similarities between the then current declining situation and the era that crumpled the country for a decade. The turmoil of 2008 facilitated marked changes across the financial as well as governmental systems that would forever alter the business landscape within America.

Sorkin’s “Too Big to Fail” is an expertly written chronicle of the 2008 financial crisis: in particular the institutions and individuals who had leading roles in both its downfall as well as salvation. The book is above all a chronicle of human folly and the incredible mistakes made not only within this short window of 2008, but throughout the past 30 years of American business. The first and most essential aspect of understanding this book; and an element which Sorkin does well to point out; is how the crisis was not created or caused by events in 2008, but was the culmination and synthesis of a myriad of different factors that had been created for the better part of three decades. If one can learn anything form this book it is that there is no one element, no one smoking-gunthat can be attributed to the crisis of 2008; but a combination of complex and interconnected factors. The unprecedented growth or boomof the US economic system during the 80’s & 90’s laid the foundation for much of the 2008 recession. The US economy was on the rise, credit was flowing and mortgage industry was seeing incredible growth. With governmental pressure to promote homeownership and relaxed lending standards, the home mortgage industry was steering itself into a massive hole. No where was this rise to profitability more prevalent than within the financial services industry, by 2008 it has ballooned to more than 40% of corporate profits in the United States. (Sorkin, p. 3) It was a Wealth-creation machine known for large salaries and even larger risks. This rise is what marks the beginning of the many interrelated themes Sorkin highlights within the book.

The key characteristic of Sorkin’s book, a compilation of interviews and research, is that is flows chronologically; starting with the collapse and eventual sale of Bear Stearns to JP Morgan in March of 2008 all the way to the enactment of the government’s TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) in October. Although it was difficult at times to understand the multitude of events occurring so quickly and simultaneously; this calculated decision by Sorkin was critical to demonstrating the overwhelming nature of the period. The individuals facing these challenges were met with an ever-shifting landscape that would change daily if not hourly; their decisions were imperfect, but how could they not be -- they were simply doing the best they could during a terrible situation. As for the content of the book; it explains the rise and then fall of the interconnected banking system though the eyes of the people living through the crisis. The book highlights the complex financial instruments, risky lending practices, risk consolidation, leverage, asymmetric information as well as the many other factors that lead to the crash; however, Sorkin goes beyond simple description and does his best to distinguish to broader stokes of the crisis by placing it within the larger context of human decision making. Such terms as moral hazard and irrational exuberance are used to describe the key drivers of human error that lead to economy astray. (p. 33) For in the end, it was not financial products or lending standards that lead to the crisis of 2008, its was individual’s misguided decision making to use these complex instruments or sign off on a risky loan that truly lies at the heart of the crisis. The economy was not an autonomous decision maker; it was individuals who shepherded it into failure. The most important dynamic explored within Too Big to Fail, was the role of the government within these uncertain times, and its responsibility to protect the financial system. Never before in history had the government’s regulatory agencies played such an important and active role within the American economy. The fundamental characteristics of capitalism and a free market economy were severely challenged; some financial institutions had become so large and so integral to the rest of the system that letting them fail was simply not an option. What had started on Wall Street had become an epidemic of confidence all across the economy. This loss of confidence within the financial system is one of the few week points in the book; Sorkin does not fully explain the paralyzing consequences that a loss of confidence had on the system. The economy is not simply a machine that runs on tangible assets, it’s a larger symbiotic organism that relies on the hypothetical and theoretical relationships created by a collective trust in the system. Perception became the reality, and the economy stumbled. This relationship between Wall Street and Washington; and the interplay between the parties has forever shaped our nation. While many books have been written about the crisis, its origins and its ramifications; no other book offers such substantive insight into this brief period of time that will continue to guide the US economic system. Sorkin recreated the twelve months of 2008 that will most likely shape the economies path for the next twenty years. The crisis shook free many of the false realities our nation had about wealth creation and forced us to take a harsh self-evaluation of who we are as a country and what choices we are making. It pushed us to face the uncomfortable reality that we have serious challenges ahead of us, and that we can no longer afford to live blissfully unaware to the consequences of our actions. Our nations’ fanatical drive towards material wealth must come to an end; the 2008 crisis is evidence of that.

Too Big To Fail, is a delightful read that presents the details of the crisis in a manageable and tangible manner. But by far its strongest quality was its ability to truly create the individuals who had to face these epic challenges and make decisions that would impact not only the United States, but also the world at large. It truly is an illumination of human discourse, reasoning, ineptitude and brilliance; and how the leaders of the financial system coped with the potential destruction of our economy and how they lead their companies and the nation to a more stable place. The book constructed a window into the past for us to understand how the decisions were made and where adversities arose. I became intimately connected to the characters and the firms; griped by the books consistent flow and steady stream of relevant information. Sorkin does a wonderful job of constructing the larger contextual framework in which these decisions were made. It presents the reader with meaningful questions and timely opportunities to evaluate what they have read and what it means to them within everyday life. Well written and gripping, I would recommend this book to anyone interested in finance, as well as to anyone engrossed with the future of our nation and our economic system. Sorkin does not harp upon financial instruments or paint a morbid picture of egotistical bankers running wild; but fairly presents the crisis in a context that is significant to any reader, i.e. ‘where do we go from here’?
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Editorial Staff 

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Government Shutdown: A Sound Investment?

The recent government shutdown has put the US economy in a state of limbo. The Republican passed House Resolution 368 altered Congressional rules, effectively barring Democrats from bringing up a Senatorial amendment to provide government funding. A deadlocked Congress has furloughed federal workers, cut budgets, and put many company jobs at risk. Non-profit companies have had federal grants frozen and small businesses suffered from frozen government contracts and stalled loans. The economic pace of the nation and its industries has been severely hindered. The high levels of tense uncertainty have caused both emotional and financial distress. Historically, national anomalous calamities have witnessed the stock market tend toward volatility—and the current government shutdown is upholding this precedent. Investors are currently grappling with the paramount question of sensible response to the government shutdown. 

My advice is both cautious and relieving: Don’t panic, but keep your eye on the market. In late September, the threat alone of a government shutdown evoked widespread investor fear, and US futures plummeted. However, judging on past shutdowns, the market usually absorbs short term crises and moves on. After the 17 government shutdowns in US history, the post-shutdown market increased on average by 2.5% after three months, and 13.3% over the next year. The volatility of the shutdown market may cause uncertainty and stress, but they do not diminish investment prospects. The price declines may present a good opportunity to buy sound investments whose value may increase at the end of the shutdown.  Hedging investments on previous results is a safer bet than giving in to the whims of a shutdown market. But be wary, the past performances of the stock market never guarantee the future. 
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Nyall Islam

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Welcome!

Hello readers!

We'd like to welcome you to the newly improved Duke Business Network blog. This site will be regularly updated with the latest news in business, finance, and the political economy. Blogs can be accessed by topic through the tabs under the home page header, or specifically through the search bar on the sidebar. You can also find DBN original video content, ranging from weekly market recaps and interviews with leaders in the larger corporate community in the video section of the sidebar.

We are always looking for more bloggers and creative ways to expand DBN so feel free to reach out in the comments section or through email at dukebiznetwork@gmail.com

With your input and a fresh host of bloggers/contributors, we are looking forward to a successful year!

Best,
The DBN Team