Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Janet Yellen & The Federal Reserve

Janet Yellen is sworn in on Capitol Hill
Janet Yellen has officially been sworn in as the new chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Ben Bernanke. Yellen is the first woman to hold the position, and faces several obstacles in her initial year as chair. Yellen’s primary objective will be to wind down the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying stimulus program without harming the nation. Although the American economy has been improving recently, it is still very fragile. Yellen is therefore in an incredibly challenging place to enact economic policy that is stable yet effective. The phased reduction of the Federal Reserve’s $85 billion a month Quantitative Easing program has already created issues in emerging financial markets. Quantitative Easing has kept US interest rates low and has therefore resulted in large outflows of cash from the United States into other currencies, as people search for more substantial returns abroad. It will be highly interesting to follow how Yellen’s appointment will shift US economic policy, and how this resulting policy will affect not only our domestic economy, but the global economy. Every action has a reaction, and Yellen’s position is undoubtedly a powerful one.

Yellen is an established economist, and is professor emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley specializing in business and economics. Her credentials suggest that she may be able to respond to the challenges at hand, regardless of the incredible complexity of the situation. However, Bernanke’s Quantitative Easing program marked a period of unprecedented government stimulus, and may provide Yellen substantial, unforeseen obstacles that could threaten the success of her office.
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Chris Geary

Friday, November 15, 2013

Book Review: Too Big to Fail

Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System and Themselves
By Andrew Ross Sorkin

The Most important risk is systematic: if this dynamic continues unabated, the result would be a greater probability of widespread insolvencies, severe and protracted damage to the financial system and, ultimately, to the economy as a whole” -- Timothy Geithner

The quotation above by Timothy Geithner, then head of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve in 2008, strikes at the heart of the finical crisis of 2008 and the severe consequences it posed for our nation’s economy. The economic recession that struck the global financial system was a historic and unparalleled crisis that challenged the bedrock of modern finance. It was a global recession that hit not only the United States but also every country that was exposed to the global banking system, a now essential and interconnected element of every developed economic nation. Dubbed by Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, as the worst economy since the great depression, the economic downturn in 2008 had far reaching and lasting effects that resulted in stunning losses not only on Wall Street, but Main Street as well. As an academic, and student of the Great Depression of the 1930’s, Bernanke was well aware of the stunning similarities between the then current declining situation and the era that crumpled the country for a decade. The turmoil of 2008 facilitated marked changes across the financial as well as governmental systems that would forever alter the business landscape within America.

Sorkin’s “Too Big to Fail” is an expertly written chronicle of the 2008 financial crisis: in particular the institutions and individuals who had leading roles in both its downfall as well as salvation. The book is above all a chronicle of human folly and the incredible mistakes made not only within this short window of 2008, but throughout the past 30 years of American business. The first and most essential aspect of understanding this book; and an element which Sorkin does well to point out; is how the crisis was not created or caused by events in 2008, but was the culmination and synthesis of a myriad of different factors that had been created for the better part of three decades. If one can learn anything form this book it is that there is no one element, no one smoking-gunthat can be attributed to the crisis of 2008; but a combination of complex and interconnected factors. The unprecedented growth or boomof the US economic system during the 80’s & 90’s laid the foundation for much of the 2008 recession. The US economy was on the rise, credit was flowing and mortgage industry was seeing incredible growth. With governmental pressure to promote homeownership and relaxed lending standards, the home mortgage industry was steering itself into a massive hole. No where was this rise to profitability more prevalent than within the financial services industry, by 2008 it has ballooned to more than 40% of corporate profits in the United States. (Sorkin, p. 3) It was a Wealth-creation machine known for large salaries and even larger risks. This rise is what marks the beginning of the many interrelated themes Sorkin highlights within the book.

The key characteristic of Sorkin’s book, a compilation of interviews and research, is that is flows chronologically; starting with the collapse and eventual sale of Bear Stearns to JP Morgan in March of 2008 all the way to the enactment of the government’s TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) in October. Although it was difficult at times to understand the multitude of events occurring so quickly and simultaneously; this calculated decision by Sorkin was critical to demonstrating the overwhelming nature of the period. The individuals facing these challenges were met with an ever-shifting landscape that would change daily if not hourly; their decisions were imperfect, but how could they not be -- they were simply doing the best they could during a terrible situation. As for the content of the book; it explains the rise and then fall of the interconnected banking system though the eyes of the people living through the crisis. The book highlights the complex financial instruments, risky lending practices, risk consolidation, leverage, asymmetric information as well as the many other factors that lead to the crash; however, Sorkin goes beyond simple description and does his best to distinguish to broader stokes of the crisis by placing it within the larger context of human decision making. Such terms as moral hazard and irrational exuberance are used to describe the key drivers of human error that lead to economy astray. (p. 33) For in the end, it was not financial products or lending standards that lead to the crisis of 2008, its was individual’s misguided decision making to use these complex instruments or sign off on a risky loan that truly lies at the heart of the crisis. The economy was not an autonomous decision maker; it was individuals who shepherded it into failure. The most important dynamic explored within Too Big to Fail, was the role of the government within these uncertain times, and its responsibility to protect the financial system. Never before in history had the government’s regulatory agencies played such an important and active role within the American economy. The fundamental characteristics of capitalism and a free market economy were severely challenged; some financial institutions had become so large and so integral to the rest of the system that letting them fail was simply not an option. What had started on Wall Street had become an epidemic of confidence all across the economy. This loss of confidence within the financial system is one of the few week points in the book; Sorkin does not fully explain the paralyzing consequences that a loss of confidence had on the system. The economy is not simply a machine that runs on tangible assets, it’s a larger symbiotic organism that relies on the hypothetical and theoretical relationships created by a collective trust in the system. Perception became the reality, and the economy stumbled. This relationship between Wall Street and Washington; and the interplay between the parties has forever shaped our nation. While many books have been written about the crisis, its origins and its ramifications; no other book offers such substantive insight into this brief period of time that will continue to guide the US economic system. Sorkin recreated the twelve months of 2008 that will most likely shape the economies path for the next twenty years. The crisis shook free many of the false realities our nation had about wealth creation and forced us to take a harsh self-evaluation of who we are as a country and what choices we are making. It pushed us to face the uncomfortable reality that we have serious challenges ahead of us, and that we can no longer afford to live blissfully unaware to the consequences of our actions. Our nations’ fanatical drive towards material wealth must come to an end; the 2008 crisis is evidence of that.

Too Big To Fail, is a delightful read that presents the details of the crisis in a manageable and tangible manner. But by far its strongest quality was its ability to truly create the individuals who had to face these epic challenges and make decisions that would impact not only the United States, but also the world at large. It truly is an illumination of human discourse, reasoning, ineptitude and brilliance; and how the leaders of the financial system coped with the potential destruction of our economy and how they lead their companies and the nation to a more stable place. The book constructed a window into the past for us to understand how the decisions were made and where adversities arose. I became intimately connected to the characters and the firms; griped by the books consistent flow and steady stream of relevant information. Sorkin does a wonderful job of constructing the larger contextual framework in which these decisions were made. It presents the reader with meaningful questions and timely opportunities to evaluate what they have read and what it means to them within everyday life. Well written and gripping, I would recommend this book to anyone interested in finance, as well as to anyone engrossed with the future of our nation and our economic system. Sorkin does not harp upon financial instruments or paint a morbid picture of egotistical bankers running wild; but fairly presents the crisis in a context that is significant to any reader, i.e. ‘where do we go from here’?
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Editorial Staff 

Friday, December 14, 2012

Bond Market: 2012 Annual Review

The 2012 bond market produced healthy returns across the major asset classes and marked the eighteenth year in a row of positive gains for investment grade bonds. The Fed’s ultra-low interest rate policy depressed yields and supported prices of short-term securities and government bonds. Because of the lower yields from the safer securities, investors actively sought out the higher yields investments of the market. In addition to ultra-low interest rates, the slow global growth boosted the bond market. Investors were confident that government central banks would not raise interest rates in the near future given the sluggish economic performance across all countries.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its stance that it will not raise interest rates until 2015. Therefore, the bond prices would continue to be supported and worth investing in. However, the economy in the U.S. grew just enough to support investor confidence in the financial health of corporate and high yield bond issuers. The Federal Funds rate remains at 0.25%.

Below are the 2012 returns on various asset classes:

• Investment-grade U.S. bonds: 4.22%
• Short-term U.S. Treasuries: 0.51%
• Intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries: 1.73%
• Long-term U.S. Treasuries: 3.78%
• Mortgage-backed securities: 2.426%
• Municipal bonds: 6.78%
• Investment Grade Corporate bonds: 9.82%
• Long-term Investment Grade corporate bonds: 12.41%
• High yield bonds: 14.71%
• International government bonds: 5.66%
• Emerging market bonds: 16.52%

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Brandon Nesfield

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

2012 Stock Performance Review

In a year characterized by volatility due to concerns over the impending fiscal cliff and questions about the debt ceiling, U.S. markets performed surprisingly well overall. Taking dividend payments into account, the NASDAQ returned 16%, the S&P 500 15%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 10%. This strong performance occurred in the midst of a worsening European debt crisis, stalling U.S. economic growth, and political gridlock in Washington. Over the first quarter of 2012, stocks posted strong gains, only to have them erased in the second quarter as the European crisis intensified and technical failures marred the third largest ever IPO in May as Facebook went public. In June, however, ECB president Mario Draghi worked with the EU to provide bailout loans to Spain’s embattled banks, which culled investors’ fears somewhat. With rumors abounding that the Fed would initiate a new round of quantitative easing in the third quarter, stocks began to get back on track. In September, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke announced QE 3 and the S&P reached a 5-year high of 1466. Investors remained bullish into the New Year, despite decreased corporate earnings across the board.

Financial stocks led the charge over the year, gaining 26% and reversing a freefalling trend. Banks continued to clean up their balance sheets and despite rogue trading mishaps and rate-fixing scandals, the sector performed very well overall. Looking ahead, volatility will likely come down as politicians come to a consensus over the debt ceiling, although a permanent fix does not seem imminent. Investors are fleeing bonds for equities, and many market prognosticators see 2013 as being a year of record highs for stocks.
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Scott Lamson

Monday, September 17, 2012

Strong Moves by Fed Spur Stock Surge

Stocks surged this week following the announcement Thursday that the Federal Reserve would undertake its third round of quantitative easing, QE3. The program will consist of the Fed purchasing approximately $40 Billion in mortgage-backed-securities per month until significant improvements are seen in the labor market. The open-endedness of the program came as especially good news to investors who were expecting action from the Fed, but were pleasantly surprised by the forcefulness of the announced program and its potential longevity. By purchasing mortgage-backed-securities, the Fed hopes to boost a still-slumping housing market to growth in the overall economy and eventually an increase in employment.

Similar good news came to investors across the pond in Europe when a German Constitutional Court ruled that Germany could participate in the previously announced program by the European Central Bank to buy up short-term debt from the turmoil-ridden economies of countries in the EU. This affirmation of strong monetary policy from the ECB (which sparked last week’s equity market gains) coupled with the strong action taken by the Fed here at home pushed the Dow Jones up 286.73 (+2.15%) for the week to close at 13,593.37, within 5% of its October-2007 record high. Similarly, the S&P moved up 27.85 to close at 1465.77 (+1.94%) and the NASDAQ docked up 47.53 (+1.52%) to close at 3183.95. Despite this week’s rally, significant economic concerns still linger. Fears of looming inflation and a still week job market continue to worry investors. Only time will tell whether the Fed’s bold moves this week will lead to a sustained rally in the US equity market.
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Editorial Staff